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Survival Vs. "annoyance" Likelihood Triage...
#1
Hi all...



I've been wondering...



I tend to think these days that shelter- and fire-building and food-finding are better termed "primitive skills."



When everyday folk get into trouble, what's the most common scenario?



How often is shelter/fire/food part of a survival story each year?



The most common emergency/wilderness scenarios would seem to me to be getting LOST and/or getting HURT/SICK.



When people get lost nowadays how many times have they used shelter/fire/food skills to get unlost? Does anyone have any examples at all from the past year even? Any recent examples at all?



All skills are good to have, but offhand I'd say that 99% of the time when people encounter an emergency situation in the boonies today that they are within a half day of walking out. (Ocean trouble is different.)



I'd think that the needed skills are basic land navigation. Only needed tool would be a good LED and/or compass.



If it's a desert situation then you might need a bottle of water to make it. Dry clothes might also be important in terms of hypothermia---but I've hiked off and heated up after a 20F thru-ice swim, but if it had been windy... A fire can mean dry clothes, so that might be a factor.



Still, hiking out + basic land nav would seem to be the solution of most woods emergencies.



Now if you or someone in your party is hurt/sick that would seem to be the next biggest complication. So that first-aid plus walking out would be the solution. But in this case other survival skills may well come into play if someone can't be moved. Mostly this would then involve shelter, fire, water and signaling. Food still wouldn't come into play, not in the USA region. Any examples of an injured party using shelter, fire, water or signaling skills in recent times?



I suppose the main thing is that one should consider where you tend to go and then get the skills needed to get yourself out of trouble for that region. Most times the fix would seem to be walking out and the needed skill would be basic land nav. Like, this would be a LIKELY scenario. If you do things in the boonies you MAY WELL someday have to hike all day in bad conditions to resolve an emergency. How many outdoorspeople experience this? MOST if they do it enough. Versatile roughstuff hiking skill and fitness is thus a truly vital skill.



How many have ever HAD to snare game or spear fish?



Has a spark fire saved anyone latly?



I rist my case. ...Or do I? I'm open to discussion. I'm probably overlooking huge factors... : ) )



Basically, if a dayhike is the solution then the type of emergency we're likely to experience in our lifetime involves dealing with an annoyance.



The annoyance emergency also involves getting VEHICLES FIXED or UNSTUCK were in the boonies and our vehicle breaks down or gets stuck. How common is that? It's not a survival question---we can hike out---we can throw money at it---but it's a major annoyance. Thus vehicle repair and unstucking (ropes, comealongs, levers) are REALISTIC wilderness "emergency" skills which don't really save our lives but make them a whole lot easier and solvent.



Of course one wants to be ready for the Big One --- but we need to remember to tie this in with also being ready for the Likly One.



How would you ranks skills in terms of a Likeliness Trige?
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#2
Um, no.



Google James Kim.



He tried walking out. Was found DEAD 1 mile from where his vehicle was stuck, with his wife and children still there, who consequently stayed the hell put and WERE found and WERE rescued.



In a survival situation, you need to focus on water, and shelter first and foremost. Stay put, make yourself findable (big fire, smoke, flares etc)



If you think a compass and a flashlight will get you out, I'd like to take you on a trip to Michigans UP up to iron country. I'm curious how many times you'll cover your own path when your N needle on your compass spins like crazy because you're standing over a huge ore deposit.



It seems like you found this forum, but haven't yet found the reason for it's existence, IE Ron and Karens videos, which cover a wealth of topics.



Thing is, you're presumption, is flat out wrong, and has been proven wrong time and again.
Welcome to the internet, you're probably taking it too seriously.

What you see is the result of the perspective you choose.

"Knowledge isn't wisdom unless it's empirical." - My own damn self.

Grand Rapids Michigan
#3
Hi, I am fairly new to this forum,I joined because I would like to learn about all the survival skills that I could acquire. To practice them & in enough of time own the skills. Survival is not only about being out in the woods, its about being able to handle any emergency that might come along. Life is very uncertain and you just never know. I am very serious about taking care of my family no matter what the situation might be. There might be a skill that you will not need for a long time, if a situation comes along, you just might need that particular skill for your family & yourself. Learning an practicing a particular skill could never hurt. You just never know what could happen in any part of the US. I live in the ny/nj area there have been times power was down for 2 or 3 days. I have a well that means no water, no toilets, no electric,no heat etc. There's an example right there of where the skills kick in. Nobody figured on Katrina or 9/11 to mention a few. The bottom line survival = preparation. Preparation for everything and anything. Just my 02c.
#4
Also, there's the family that went for a hike to find a Christmas tree - shelter saved them until they were found.



Asian teacher on west coast went for a walk in familiar area - still not found (that I know of).



Injuries happen quick and when there's no 911/dr. a simple injury/sickness in a normal situation can become life threatening in the woods a few hundred feet from the road.



Weather!!!



Wild animals!
Steve
  • Ignorance is a long way from stupid, but it can get there real fast.
  • Losing an illusion makes you smarter than finding a truth - Ludwig Borne
  • Always remember the Golden Rule: He who has the gold, makes the rules.
  • This is more fun than beating a tree hugger with a dead baby seal.
#5
Dravine is dead on with this. I've been out hunting in an unfamiliar area and gotten turned around and lost.



It was getting dark and walking around in the woods after dark without a trail to follow and only a flashlight for light wasn't something I wanted to do, compass or not. It's awfully hard to find a four wheeler in the dark with only a small maglight. I was prepared to hunker down for the night by a fire if need be, however, two way radios are a wonderful invention and I was able to reach my buddy who fired off a shot, and I went toward it until he could hear me walking through the woods and guide me to the location of our ATV's.



I was prepared for the weather and cold, however had I been alone and unprepared I could easily have died from exposure and still been within a 100 yards of my ATV without knowing it.
#6
We only know what makes the news in some form:::



We have no idea how many times the use of a shelter or other "skill" sets are employed over the course of a year.

those do not make the news ...or they are a regional story and thats it.



How many of us have been caught out later than we planned, got a little confused as to where we were in relation to where we wanted to be?...

I have used all of those skills, shelter, snare, fire making while on extended stays in the bush...



even once while on a day hike when I slid down an unexpected path that gave way and I couldnt climb back up ...Afternoon late and getting chilly...I hiked down a ways then just sat there for a few minutes and made a fire , put out a few snares...gathered a few plants , made some needle tea...ate an apple and a sandwich...

Made a pile of leaves,grasses, needles, used my contractors bag for a leanto... and went to sleep...No one came looking for me cuz I always leave the message that I might stay out over nite...Next morning I got up, nothing in the snares...no big deal ...I hiked down the arroyo and was back to my truck in about 3 hours..Who knew? No one.



How far was I from getting out?...maybe a few hours...doesnt mean you wont die.



Here in California a few weeks ago some snowboarders got lost...one was out all night ...he made a shelter...



I think this happens all the time but never makes the news...



Ron has a DVD about getting your truck going /unstuck...Abomans book also covers repairs...



Primitive skills may or may not come into play. I practice primitive skills everyday . And in the scheme of your life.. of survival it doesnt matter what you name them...

The label doesnt matter much...If you only need to call on these skills one time in life, in an emergency...thats your payoff.



It isnt about what happend to those other people ,it is about what is happening to you right damn now.

We cant count on being lucky...or some one finding us in time..If you know how to do some basic skills ..you have a shot





Dude...I say coveryerownsix...
I have been where the hand of man has never set foot



Dont pick a fight with an old man. If he's too old to fight, he'll just kill you.
#7
I think that if someone was lost and used firemaking and snares to get found that it would make the news.



James Kim is an exception that seems to prove the rule. So is ore deposit. So is being lost in UP (or UT/ID) --- hardly anyone goes to those places.



Sure there are Strange Things that happen---but what are the *common things*? That's my point.



I agree to be prepared. From your stories it seems that first and foremost walking out is the main thing to be ready for.



Again, what's your list look like if you're going to triage your skills and practice time based on *likelihood*?



I suggest a ranking something like:



*1: roughstuff hike fitness (9 of 10 emergencies requiring *walk out* to resolve)

*2: a light

*3: basic nav skills

*4: compass (map)

*5: first aid

*6: vehicle repair and unstucking (half of emergencies involving this to avoid major annoyance)

(...now we drop way off in need-likelihood...)

*7: dry clothes (fire for same)

*8: bottle of water

*9: shelter



These are what you will LIKELY need, maybe even OFTEN in a life of boonying. That is, your odds of needing these skills to avoid serious annoyance are basically 100%.



The likely need for the rest of the standard primitive skills for survival (especially spark-fire making and food-gathering) drops off to what level of likelihood? 1 in 1000?



As I said, primitive skills are great in their own right. One should always be prepared. But it seems worth considering the Triage of Likelihood.



(I've personally been studying and using a wide range of prim/surv skills most of my life. I've needed the 8 listed above a few times. I've only rarely seen mention of need of the rest.)
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#8
Seems that your mind is made up Jeff. Why try to point out the obvious?



Dave
Some mornings it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps!


#9
[quote name='JeffOYB' post='206738' date='Feb 7 2008, 03:26 PM']I think that if someone was lost and used firemaking and snares to get found that it would make the news.



James Kim is an exception that seems to prove the rule. So is ore deposit. So is being lost in UP (or UT/ID) --- hardly anyone goes to those places.[/quote]

James Kim is not the exception, hundreds of incidents JUST LIKE his happen every year. [url="http://news.google.com"]http://news.google.com[/url] I just searched google news for "missing person found dead", there's over 2,000 hits to that term. Some aren't 100% relevant, but a good portion are.



[url="http://www.petoskeynews.com/articles/2008/02/05/news/doc47a741f04a5f7210853479.txt"]My home town, 2 days ago[/url]



So, if hunters getting lost, and dying of exposure, people wandering off getting lost, and dying of exposure, are so uncommon, I'd like to hear what number has to be reached before you consider something "common".



As to "Hardly anyone goes to those places". WTF? I guess the thousands of snowmobilers who go up to the UP every winter, to ride the THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of miles of remote wilderness trails through the upper peninsula are hardly anyone. I'm sorry but your arguments continue to get weaker by virtue of your absolute lack of any factual data to support yourself on. You should consider just dropping this topic, it's obvious to me that you've already made your rambo-mind up, and nothing we can say in contrast to your own firmly held beliefs is going to sway you. Just do me a favor, and don't spread your ideas too much. We've already got enough Bear Grylls in the world.

Quote:Sure there are Strange Things that happen---but what are the *common things*? That's my point.



I agree to be prepared. From your stories it seems that first and foremost walking out is the main thing to be ready for.



Again, what's your list look like if you're going to triage your skills and practice time based on *likelihood*?



I suggest a ranking something like:



*1: roughstuff hike fitness (9 of 10 emergencies requiring *walk out* to resolve)
If you can walk out, it's not an emergency. Emergency means you're up shits creek.

Quote:These are what you will LIKELY need, maybe even OFTEN in a life of boonying. That is, your odds of needing these skills to avoid serious annoyance are basically 100%.



The likely need for the rest of the standard primitive skills for survival (especially spark-fire making and food-gathering) drops off to what level of likelihood? 1 in 1000?



As I said, primitive skills are great in their own right. One should always be prepared. But it seems worth considering the Triage of Likelihood.



(I've personally been studying and using a wide range of prim/surv skills most of my life. I've needed the 8 listed above a few times. I've only rarely seen mention of need of the rest.)
Welcome to the internet, you're probably taking it too seriously.

What you see is the result of the perspective you choose.

"Knowledge isn't wisdom unless it's empirical." - My own damn self.

Grand Rapids Michigan
#10
I'm not that confident....



Or maybe I'm not bright enough to figure out with mathematical certitude the skills I'm going to need.. Add to that the fact that my crystal ball shat the bed...



I do know that the rule of 3's makes sense when keeping my dimply white Irish at 98.6[sup]o[/sup] is a priority. Soooo....



I've always considered the rule of 3's as my starting point for preps and skills. And I've always considered the rules to be extremely general. You're "roughstuff hike fitness" is good, but a four hour hike in piss poor first level shelter (jeans and a cotton t-shirt) is going to cost you. A midwestern storm can throw the best navigators for a loop.
I Hear Voices.....And They Don't Like You.



"Further, I propose that this "Moment of Misery" be hence-to-forth be referred to as "Moment of Misery for Misanthropic Yammering", or "MOMMY"!" ~ DDennis2



(what an effing moron. - i feel such pity now for his lovely wife and intelligent children - and maybe even for his food-quality dawg, nick-named "Spicy" sez i.)
#11
1st, you have "9" items listed above, not "9" (easy mistake).



I also notice that you indicate that spark-fire making (I figure you mean spark-based fire) has a 1-1000 likelihood of being needed. Maybe your right, but FIRE is needed. None of your 9 listed items include anyway to start a fire such as matches, lighter, etc. I know your are of the opinion that spark-based (let alone friction-based) fire is important, but do you truly believe FIRE is not important? Just wondering.



Coyote Spirit
I'm confussed...Wait...Maybe I'm not



Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and proclaiming, "Wow, what a ride!!!"



http://www.bepreparedtosurvive.com/



Author of "Build the Perfect Survival Kit"
#12
Seriously, I have always taken the stance that more likely than not, if you try to hike out, you will die. Period. Unless you are trained in navigation, but even then, the chances of someone finding you (you should have left a map, gps coord, trip plan, something anyway) are higher than you the chances of you happening on the correct route, and finding where the hell you f'd up in the first place.

a simple shelter can easily raise your environment temperature by 10-20*. A fire will likely grow that number (if you know how to situate your shelter/fire) Personally, if I get lost, especially at night, I ain't going nowhere! I give a 24 hr buffer before SAR comes after me, and I want to increase the chances I have of being found, a big fat fire billowing smoke increases that alot!!! 3 big fat fires are even harder to miss.

I don't know where you are at, but up here in the high sierras we take getting lost and staying alive very seriously, which is why we train our minds and bodies to react appropriately. Unlike Mr. Grylls, you do not wander at night trying to remember which freakin star points north again.



1: roughstuff hike fitness (9 of 10 emergencies requiring *walk out* to resolve) (these 9-10 didn't need to become an emergency, and any SAR worker would rather look for something standing still making themselves seen than walking around trying to get out on their own.)

again...many of us that stay alive, don't call up the news station in the morning to brag about the fact that we did something dumb that caused us to endanger ourselves, but we're ok, because we built a fire and a quick leanto.



Quote:(...now we drop way off in need-likelihood...)

*7: dry clothes (fire for same)

*8: bottle of water

*9: shelter



shelter comes first, along with fire in my book. I am speaking from my AO though, high sierras. Storms come up fast and keeping warm and out of the elements is huge!

Bottle of water, or ability to carry and purify water is necessity. remember the rule of 3's.



I think the difference between your viewpoint and alot of ours is if you get lost, you want to find your way out. If I get lost, I want to get found!
official westside pirate...be jealous...and afraid.
#13
As has already been said (Your mind is set) however at this time here in the Cascade range of Oregon some passes are closed till spring due to snow. The rule of 3 always applies and walking around basicly avoiding SAR at night in the Cascades even with a light is suicide. I would rethink your reasoning but in any case good luck you'll need it.

Lobo
#14
Yes, the Sierras sound like they'd have different parameters.



Those Big 3 do seem like the biggest concerns.



Deaths from exposure are a very good point. --You'd always want to be prepped for your conditions.



What's the common max walk-out distance to a road with traffic for a UP snowmobiler? 10 miles? One should of course be prepared according to the answer and to your trail.



Setting aside repliers who seem to simply be peeved/annoyed, the contrast that appears to be trying to come out of this discussion is one of Staying Put vs. Walking Out.



In lower Michigan where I live a road with traffic is likely no more than 5 miles away and even our bad terrain is fairly passable---altho a cedar swamp is something to take seriously and be particularly prepared for. So I put an "annoying and possibly hard walk out" as very high on my Likelihood Triage list. Or should I emphasize Stay Put instead?



So far we have the Rule of 3---very good to cover prep for the basics. But the Likelihood Triage seems perhaps different.



So can I see anyone else's Likelihood Triage list?



I'm still curious to see where spark-fire and food-gathering would rank. Maybe spark-fire should rank high...I'm not the one presuming here. I surely agree that having lighters/matches around plus the needed skills is important.



I say to question everything. And consider your situation not someone else's. But of course let the common pitfalls guide you to doing it better.



--JP
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#15
Jeff...



I would be interested in knowing your credentials. EVERY teacher that I know, myself included, know that there are four (4) basics in a true survival situation. They are:

  • Shelter

  • Fire

  • Water

  • Food

In that order (Some put water, then fire.... I put fire above water because many times water must be purified)



That is based on the "Rule of 3's" which says you have...

  • 3 minutes without air

  • 3 hours without shelter

  • 3 days without water

  • 3 weeks without food

Anyways, every teacher worth his salt will also tell you that if you are in a true survival situation, and someone knows where you were headed... Stay Put! Walking got you lost in the first place. And suppose that you are on a ridge line, and the temperature drops 30 degrees in an hour (it is not the exception.. it happens all the time here in sunny Missouri). Or suppose it is 5 PM in the winter. You going to keep walking in the dark? If so, you not only are unlearned, you are foolish! James Kim and myriads of others like him have died wandering. It is not the exception, it is the rule. You have a far better chance of being found if you are not a "moving target". So buckle down, make a shelter to protect your core temperature from the elements, build a fire for warmth, security, and peace of mind.



You are coming into a forum, not knowing the quality and expertise of the people here. Behind these obscure nicks live some of the world foremost "survival experts" (of course most of them wouldn't tell you that themselves.. they know that they are always learning). They have spent literally hundreds of thousands of hour combined in the field proving themselves. So I ask again.. perhaps you could share your credentials... It would be appreciated. By the way.. I am not attacking you, just trying to find out more about you and who you are...



Tirade Ended...

- Ben



PS - 4 of us posted in the same breath.. so I may have gone over other territory that someone else said, sorry for the repetition. <img src='http://www.hoodswoods.net/IVB/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='Smile' />



This post has been edited by Ben Tziyon: Yesterday, 02:28 PM
Ben Tziyon



http://www.yhwhswordoffaith.com/WAS/Survival.htm

http://www.youtube.com/BushcraftOnFire



You can live for 3 Minutes without Air...

For 3 Hours without Shelter...

For 3 Days without Water...

For 3 Weeks without Food...

But you can't live at all without Faith!


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