Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Survival Vs. "annoyance" Likelihood Triage...
#16
I would add that even if it is an annoying or inconvenient walk, what are the environmental circumstances? Is night falling along with the temperature? Is there a storm coming (can you tell by the changes in the sky, wind, atmospheric pressure?)? Can you find your way to the road with just a compass? Which direction? How is your energy level? Do you need to eat and rest? Where? How?



I think I understand your point but I don't think it goes far enough. James Kim stayed with his family for days and did everything right, then out of desperation, he left to find the road to get help. That is when everything went wrong for him. Improperly dressed and outfitted, he fell victim to hypothermia and died. His family was rescued soon after.



Everything is tied together and circumstances will dictate the right course of action and any changes to be made to that course.



Being prepared for all possible situations in your area of operation is key.
If you can't hear me, it's because I'm in parentheses.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

How young can you die of old age?

I went to a restaurant that serves "breakfast at any time". So I ordered French Toast during the Renaissance.

I have an existential map. It has 'You are here' written all over it.

There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot.

-Steven Wright
#17
[quote name='Ben Tziyon' post='206753' date='Feb 7 2008, 01:22 PM']Jeff...



[ ]

You are coming into a forum, not knowing the quality and expertise of the people here. Behind these obscure nicks live some of the world foremost "survival experts" (of course most of them wouldn't tell you that themselves.. they know that they are always learning). They have spent literally hundreds of thousands of hour combined in the field proving themselves. So I ask again.. perhaps you could share your credentials... It would be appreciated.[/quote]



I mentioned them already---I've spent my life boonying and I've learned the skills and read the materials.



I'm familiar with what experts say.



Uh, one doesn't need credentials to ask questions. Or to discuss things. I'm not telling anyone what to do. I'm trying to discuss the concept of Likelihood Triage.



Are the emergencies we are likely to face in most of the US what would be called true survival situations? If not then that alone would change the recommendations.



I agree that truly severe situations do come up but it seems likely that "major annoyances" come up far more often. It also seems likely that most outdoorspeople in the US aren't all that far out in the boonies (obviously remote areas are a different story). How best to prepare for non-"true survival" scenarios that aren't that far from safety? Sure, they can turn deadly if mishandled. But how to best handle? What skills to turn to first?



Light and nav skills seem like they could---if practiced and worked on---be very helpful in night-time walk-outs.



Is it likely that situations that would call for 5-10 mile walk-outs are common in outdoor troubles? (All things considered.)



Is it still better to practice shelter/fire than walk-out skills?



Having the right clothes would be part of making walking-out an option. So would fitness. If exposure will be a risk then one is obliged to have the skills needed to stay put.



Maybe night-time is the bigger snag, making night walking a very bad idea for even well-dressed, fit people---involving skills that aren't as easily trained as are shelter/fire. If so, then opt for shelter/fire.
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#18
I think that there are many philosophies of survival,many senerios one can end up in,different skills that are needed for the various situations one needs to survive.Personally I think you go with what you feel is important ie.survival 101 vs survival 495.For me I do not like to judge something unimportant,I am more interested in some things than others,that is me.

What I see is many folks caught in disasters for example.Some handle it well and get by fine others have not a clue where to start or what to do.Look close and you will see the people who have interest and experience get by in many different ways(usually with a smile).A spark fire can come in handy to start your gas grill when the button doesn't work and you have no matches or a lighter while others have prepared and have lots of equipment on hand.You may be away from all of your stuff and truly be on your own.These are just small examples of different things that can come into play.I have always seen survival as a synthesis of all technics and the entire history of methods that one evaluates and then decides what is the best to bring to bear in a solution.

I see you are involved with a book it appears......I guarantee one can only scratch the surface with one book,no matter how thick it is.



By the way so many people are found dead within a few miles of their car it is almost hard to understand.
#19
The rule of three's is the triage list:

3 seconds without hope

3 minutes without air

3 hours without shelter (or less in the winter here)

3 days without water (or less in the summer here)

3 weeks without food



10 miles if you're lost is huge. Too big to undertake without planning. Concentric and I are heading up into the cold here in a few weeks and I am wary of the 7 mile snowshoe out, on roads, where we know the terrain and have it mapped and carry gps.



I think your "triage list" should be less equipment and more mental oriented (which you actually presented better than most people would in the first place)



rather than thinking along the lines of shelter, possible the first should be "ability to make a shelter"

instead of carrying water, source of hydration, be it water carried, stilled, boiled from creek, etc.



The reason it sounds like we're harping on you is because, although most of us act like we don't give a damn, and "they deserved it", we get pissed every time we hear of someone getting lost and dying, losing fingers, toes, noses, etc. We really do care, which is why this forum, the books, the websites, etc exist. To get your ass out alive.
official westside pirate...be jealous...and afraid.
#20
[quote name='JeffOYB' post='206751' date='Feb 7 2008, 04:18 PM']Yes, the Sierras sound like they'd have different parameters.



Those Big 3 do seem like the biggest concerns.



Deaths from exposure are a very good point. --You'd always want to be prepped for your conditions.[/quote]

Death from exposure is basically _the_ point.

Quote:What's the common max walk-out distance to a road with traffic for a UP snowmobiler? 10 miles? One should of course be prepared according to the answer and to your trail.
Max walkout distance to a road with traffic? Well, one of my favorite camping areas up in the UP is about 70 miles from power lines. That should tell you something about the roads with traffic. 10 miles is not very far up in the UP. The Hiawatha National forest is 800,000 acres of wilderness, it's crisscrossed with paved roads, dirt roads, and tote roads for logging. There's also hiking trails cut through it, notably the North Country Trail. You could easily walk 20 or 30 miles without finding a road that has any appreciable traffic on it. Given that there's Bears, wolves, and other not so friendly critters up there, wandering the hills void of direction is a bad idea.



The terrain in the upper P is varied, some areas are soft and sandy, others are exposed rock, hard ridges, and enormous tracts of wetland (swamps) can also be found. I have been to areas where a compass will get you more lost than found there. Thankfully I was on a well beaten trail, and didn't have any survival emergencies during the trip.



Previously you asserted that not a lot of people go to the UP, which as I stated wasn't correct. One thing that is true, is that comparatively, not a lot of people _live_ in the UP. That's the biggest reason I like to go there, I can actually find places where there's no people for 10 or 20 miles.



Quote:Setting aside repliers who seem to simply be peeved/annoyed, the contrast that appears to be trying to come out of this discussion is one of Staying Put vs. Walking Out.



In lower Michigan where I live a road with traffic is likely no more than 5 miles away and even our bad terrain is fairly passable---altho a cedar swamp is something to take seriously and be particularly prepared for. So I put an "annoying and possibly hard walk out" as very high on my Likelihood Triage list. Or should I emphasize Stay Put instead?



So far we have the Rule of 3---very good to cover prep for the basics. But the Likelihood Triage seems perhaps different.



So can I see anyone else's Likelihood Triage list?



I'm still curious to see where spark-fire and food-gathering would rank. Maybe spark-fire should rank high...I'm not the one presuming here. I surely agree that having lighters/matches around plus the needed skills is important.

Fire is my top priority for _preparedness_. mainly because it's a multiuse tool, I can purify water, cook food, stay warm, get light to aid in building my shelter, etc with fire. It also has a psychologically calming affect, which is _damn_ handy when you aren't alone, and people with you are easily panicked. Survival is often not a solo endeavor (James Kim).



Aside from my choosing fire as priority one for preps, I follow the standard guidelines as outlined by others. I carry 2 or 3 bic lighters in my pockets all the time. I have spark based fire tools as well. But to be honest with you, my absolute standby for firestarting, is a _ROAD FLARE_. Lights wet stuff, burns hot, and again, multiuse. Still, I don't practice spark based fire because that's what I want to bet my life on when shit hits the fan. It's so that I am proficient at it, if that's the last thing I have available. Flint and Chert can be found in many a locale, and metal waste from man is easier to find than an honest man these days.

Quote:I say to question everything. And consider your situation not someone else's. But of course let the common pitfalls guide you to doing it better.



--JP



As to being peeved or annoyed, because I'm certain I fell into that category, I'm not as irked as you might believe. I just really detest the "I can walk out" mentality. You put the Search and Rescue teams that are going to end up looking for you at risk by doing that. You want to REALLY survive a situation? Then learn how to make yourself EASIER for the SAR team to find. Your survival odds increase exponentially if you can shorten the SEARCH segment of SAR. A PLB (personal locator beacon) runs between $500 and $900, and pretty much takes the search out of search and rescue, as a radio device, it has it's limitations, but it really does increase your odds a LOT.



Survival isn't about making it out on your own, it's about making it out period.
Welcome to the internet, you're probably taking it too seriously.

What you see is the result of the perspective you choose.

"Knowledge isn't wisdom unless it's empirical." - My own damn self.

Grand Rapids Michigan
#21
PS: I'm not putting down survival skills.



I'm suggesting that most every outdoorsman will be very likely able to avoid severe discomfort at some point, for themselves or others, if they are good at vehicle repair and unstucking.



I also suggest that they will likely never have to snare/spear or even gather food to survive.



I may be off on these observations but it seems that they just might suggest something as to what skills we might want to make sure we're rock solid with.



It may be a matter of comparing apples and oranges. Being prepared for likelihoods might be a different thing than being prepared for rare events. But even they have something in common---a range of likelihood.
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#22
[quote name='JeffOYB' post='206764' date='Feb 7 2008, 04:48 PM']PS: I'm not putting down survival skills.



I'm suggesting that most every outdoorsman will be very likely able to avoid severe discomfort at some point, for themselves or others, if they are good at vehicle repair and unstucking.



I also suggest that they will likely never have to snare/spear or even gather food to survive.



I may be off on these observations but it seems that they just might suggest something as to what skills we might want to make sure we're rock solid with.[/quote]



Many of the hunters I read about dying of exposure every year would still be alive if they'd stopped, built a shelter and a fire, and tucked in for the night. The rest of the hunters I read about dying this past year, one was killed by CO2 from running a propane heater in an improperly vented blind. One guy dropped his rifle from a tree stand and shot his damn self.



Snaring/Spearing for food, is the LOWEST priority, on pretty much every realistic list I've seen. Food procurement is long-term survival, not SAR rescue wait out.



As to being "good at vehicle repair and unstucking". Sorry, but there's unknowns there. Ever try to replace a U-Joint in the boonies? What do you do if you trash your transmission trying to "unstick" yourself and end up REALLY stuck?
Welcome to the internet, you're probably taking it too seriously.

What you see is the result of the perspective you choose.

"Knowledge isn't wisdom unless it's empirical." - My own damn self.

Grand Rapids Michigan
#23
As for fish...tasty and rewarding...spirit lifting.....
#24
[quote name='JeffOYB' post='206758' date='Feb 7 2008, 03:40 PM']Are the emergencies we are likely to face in most of the US what would be called true survival situations? If not then that alone would change the recommendations.[/quote]

Jeff...



First let me thank you for your gentle and calm answer. As I reread my post I saw where it could come across as heavy.. and I didn't mean it to be that way. Your character shows in your gentle words.



Having said that, To your above quote, one of the things I have observed in my years, is that seemingly passive situations can turn to "severe survival situations" in just moments. "Walking out" is certainly possible, and not always unwarranted. But in my opinion (which may not account for much) it does put you at risk, especially at night. A wrong step over that log could twist an ankle or break a leg... You might not see that bank you are about to wander over... or that branch that hits you in the eye... any of these might cause a severe situation quickly. These aren't obscure examples.



"Survival" is about doing whatever it takes to live through the situation you are in. People that get inot these circumstances are generally "off the beaten path" at least a bit. But many have gotten lost right on a trail! Walking out is ok... but what if something happens where you can't walk at that moment? This is why I feel shelter and fire/water are far more important. in my opinion.



On a side note, looking at your list of 9 things that are important to have, I noticed that you don't have a knife anywhere on that list. For me (I speak for noone else) if I could only have one carry besides the knowledge that I carry inside my head.. it would be a knife. I was wondering why you don't include one on your list?



Thanks again for your understanding...



- Ben
Ben Tziyon



http://www.yhwhswordoffaith.com/WAS/Survival.htm

http://www.youtube.com/BushcraftOnFire



You can live for 3 Minutes without Air...

For 3 Hours without Shelter...

For 3 Days without Water...

For 3 Weeks without Food...

But you can't live at all without Faith!
#25
I don't think you can pigeon hole this with the qualifier "most". A lot depends where you are...I mean mountainous, true wilderness, county forest, northern or southern U.S. and on and on. There are some places in this country where trying to walk out at night will put you on an intimate basis with the Almighty....light or no light. As others have said....it appears that some folks just need substantiation that "they are right"....well...I am not even going to think of going there. One thing strikes me odd....

Jeff mentions he has experience behind him...if so.....why all the questions and hypothetical situations? I don't mind answereing questions....but to answer them and then have to debate them...that stick don't float with me...period.
#26
[quote name='Ben Tziyon' post='206767' date='Feb 7 2008, 01:56 PM'][quote name='JeffOYB' post='206758' date='Feb 7 2008, 03:40 PM']Are the emergencies we are likely to face in most of the US what would be called true survival situations? If not then that alone would change the recommendations.[/quote]

Jeff...



First let me thank you for your gentle and calm answer. As I reread my post I saw where it could come across as heavy.. and I didn't mean it to be that way. Your character shows in your gentle words.



Having said that, To your above quote, one of the things I have observed in my years, is that seemingly passive situations can turn to "severe survival situations" in just moments. "Walking out" is certainly possible, and not always unwarranted. But in my opinion (which may not account for much) it does put you at risk, especially at night. A wrong step over that log could twist an ankle or break a leg... You might not see that bank you are about to wander over... or that branch that hits you in the eye... any of these might cause a severe situation quickly. These aren't obscure examples.



"Survival" is about doing whatever it takes to live through the situation you are in. People that get inot these circumstances are generally "off the beaten path" at least a bit. But many have gotten lost right on a trail! Walking out is ok... but what if something happens where you can't walk at that moment? This is why I feel shelter and fire/water are far more important. in my opinion.



On a side note, looking at your list of 9 things that are important to have, I noticed that you don't have a knife anywhere on that list. For me (I speak for noone else) if I could only have one carry besides the knowledge that I carry inside my head.. it would be a knife. I was wondering why you don't include one on your list?



Thanks again for your understanding...



- Ben

[/quote]



Thanks, Ben. (I don't know how to efficiently use the quote-machine on these forums.)



I'm trying to discuss, not argue. : ) ...Trying to provoke analysis and looking at things from different angles, not crankiness. : )



To allow for a night walk you'd need a light, it seems to me, without one for sure stay put. But maybe experts know that even a light isn't very helpful---input appreciated.



Yeah, situations can turn bad quick but they start out with many realistic parameters that affect outcomes. How best to try to handle these. People will tend not to abandon vehicles because of the hassle factor for recovery, so repair and unsticking skill is very handy.



One important thing to me would seem to be to stress not waiting til nightfall for activating any of this stuff. Try to be thinking of the mileage situation as the day goes by---if certain limits are passed then one pulls the plug and shifts into whatever other mode is called for. For me, I've occasionally had to pull the plug as regards daylight and walkouts to avoid Big Inconveniences, not sure if I'd call them true survival though. They've been embarrassing enough but I used "walk out" as my standard and pulled the plug before it got too late for that. Bringing a good light and having good nav skills (and tools) would SEEM to extend the range of viability for walkout, depending on location---but this would seem a common scenario for populated parts of the country.



A knife does seem vital. Offhand I wonder if fire might be more important and if knife function can often be done with hands---such as shelter making. Is knife or fire more critical in avoiding exposure risk? To me, exposure would rank up there for realistic survival concern even in fairly populated areas. A major fix for it is attire. Then comes fire/shelter. I've had several "glitches" myself where fire/shelter would've soon come in handy---but the knife question didn't seem foremost. I might've pined more for a HATCHET. I do carry knives, but in exposure scenario I might want a lighter sooner. I carry/stash lighters/strikers, too.



My own most common emergency needs might be ranked more like:



*compass/map

*light

*lighter/fire

*knife



I wonder how high a MAP would rank in all these things...it may well should go #1. Then make sure you use it during the whole outing. But then you likely don't end up in much of an emergency.



...But then again we come to the idea of ranking emergencies and what tools/skills are used most as emergencies go from common to uncommon.



If you drive off the road, enough gas and proper towing/comealong (self-tow!) equipment gotta be right up there.



It just seems to me that sometimes in our interest to cover all the bases (something I greatly enjoy) I don't practice ENOUGH the most common needs. For instance, pre-trip prep, then "doublecheck before you leave the vehicle" check. These things are HUGELY important.



How many people who can start a spark fire and who carry a striker----leave their map in the car? : )
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#27
[url="http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm"]NSC fact sheet 2004[/url]



Deaths from exposure to forces of nature: 1,102



Exposure to excessive natural cold leads the list with 676 deaths...



However, the odds for the general public of dying due to exposure to a force of a nature where 1 in 266,476.



So maybe we're all just wasting our time...
I Hear Voices.....And They Don't Like You.



"Further, I propose that this "Moment of Misery" be hence-to-forth be referred to as "Moment of Misery for Misanthropic Yammering", or "MOMMY"!" ~ DDennis2



(what an effing moron. - i feel such pity now for his lovely wife and intelligent children - and maybe even for his food-quality dawg, nick-named "Spicy" sez i.)
#28
[quote name='MISANTHROPE' post='206775' date='Feb 7 2008, 02:30 PM'][url="http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm"]NSC fact sheet 2004[/url]



So maybe we're all just wasting our time...[/quote]





Reminds me of the stoner mantra in grade school:

"Time is never wasted if your wasted all the time..." <img src='http://www.hoodswoods.net/IVB/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='Tongue' />
If you can't hear me, it's because I'm in parentheses.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

How young can you die of old age?

I went to a restaurant that serves "breakfast at any time". So I ordered French Toast during the Renaissance.

I have an existential map. It has 'You are here' written all over it.

There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot.

-Steven Wright
#29
I have been in the survival business ( SAR, Medical team, Body recovery, teaching, etcetera) for almost 30 years. I have become a firm proponent of the rule of threes after having to find, and sometimes recover, many people.



A search of your local SAR records will show how many people run afoul of the land when they do not use these rules. First Aid is, of course, important. It is covered in the rules, as part of the others. Physical endurance while outdoors is not the same as physical endurance in a survival situation. Exhaustion brought about by panic after realizing you are lost is one of the main killers. Sure we can "endurance hike" our way out, but not if we have only realized we are in trouble after exhaustion has hit us.



Many experienced hikers, skiiers, hunters, and wilderness workers get "lost" each year. There are literally hundreds of cases of dayhikers disappearing each year. If this was not so, I would never have had to gain any experience.



I know the point of this topic is to stimulate thought, but the continuing comments made it into an almost adversarial post. Enjoyable, yet disconcerting. Suffice to say I have never felt it amiss to teach the average person the rule of threes. A quick check of any survival school's curriculum will show that emergency first aid is part of it, but the central theme is 1. Awareness...2. Knowledge...3. Familiarity...with the rule of threes as the underlying, recurrent guide.



(Survived in raft in North Atlantic, survived in northern Canada with broken leg at 12 degrees Celsius for three days, got stuck on mountain in autumn,...rule of threes worked for me)
"Did anyone actually see him eat the coffee grounds?



RAEMS..."Satisfaction guaranteed or double your trauma back!"



Remote Areas Emergency Medicine and Survival

http://www.raems.com
#30
How about this: be ready all the time for everything.



In light of your particular area, be particularly ready.



In light of the most common way you'll be getting yourself out of trouble, practice that the most. And practice avoiding that trouble in the first place even more!



For my own lower Michigan area, that means walking out...and bringing my vehicle out with me if possible if that's part of the picture. So I think it might be very practical if I make sure I'm always prepped for walking out---map, compass, light, the right clothes; and also ready for basic vehicle repair and unsticking. That will keep me viable in our particular boonies for 90% of what I would run into. Maybe? Not bad?



The rest of the time I'll just be ready. (With lighter, knife...also hatchet and saw around somewhere, shovel, too. Water bottle(s). And more goodies stashed in case. And usually much more in general, to make sure we actually have a nice time.)



--JP
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)