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Survival Vs. "annoyance" Likelihood Triage...
#31
Hmmmm, statistics can be comforting, but it sure sucks when you're the statistic - it's worse when you know it could've been easily avoided.
Steve
  • Ignorance is a long way from stupid, but it can get there real fast.
  • Losing an illusion makes you smarter than finding a truth - Ludwig Borne
  • Always remember the Golden Rule: He who has the gold, makes the rules.
  • This is more fun than beating a tree hugger with a dead baby seal.
#32
I think it is all about keeping your head and making the right decisions. You can die of exposure right in downtown Manhattan (and a surprising number do) just as well as in the wilderness. In many areas you can be within 1/2 mile of civilization and not even know it.



FYI James Kim was also a victim of [url="http://www.survivaltopics.com/survival/paradoxical-undressing/"]paradoxical undressing[/url]
Earth - love it or leave it.



SurvivalTopics.com

FireSteel.com
#33
Jeff,



I don't mean to come across as peeved or annoyed, but I'm just trying to understand where you are coming from.



You keep talking about a "Likelihood Triage List." If we could predict that, we wouldn't need skills. We practice skills "because" we can't predict.



I agree with Ben about the knife, because I also believe that if I could only have one item, it would be a knife. You keep talking about spark-based fire as if it is a primitive skill. Most of us do not carry a ferrocerium rod because we want to feel like a caveman. It is because, unlike a lighter and matches, it doesn't run out of fuel (lighter) or run out (matches), and works even when soaking wet. We practice the skill because it is more difficult that using a lighter and matches. Yet, we still carry a lighter and matches.



I know that you believe that walking out can solve many problems. Let's assume your 5-10 mile walkout is easy for you with your nav skills and your LED light. Unfortunately, you stab out an eye with a small branch your light didn't see, and while your trying to stop the bleeding, you misstep, fall down a bank and break your leg. This is hard to predict. But now you need shelter and fire, as well as some medical skills. With the leg, if you are not carryng a survival kit with some items to help you erect a quick shelter and fire, you might succumb to the elements.



I have a feeling I know what you are looking for, I'm just not sure if you will find it.



Coyote Spirit
I'm confussed...Wait...Maybe I'm not



Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and proclaiming, "Wow, what a ride!!!"



http://www.bepreparedtosurvive.com/



Author of "Build the Perfect Survival Kit"
#34
[quote name='JeffOYB' post='206781' date='Feb 7 2008, 04:01 PM']How about this: be ready all the time for everything.



--JP[/quote]



BINGO



now im no expert, but the "what if's" can be endless. I think if you know how to do something whether it be building shelter, making fire, securing water, gathering food, navigating by the stars, etc. the better chances you have to survive if the "what if's" come to be.



In short I personally would rather know the basics of human survival and hope not to have to use the learned skills, then to have to need the skills and not know them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>



Woodbiteknives.com



>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
#35
Coyote Spirit:



>You keep talking about a "Likelihood Triage List." If we could predict that, we wouldn't need skills. We practice skills "because" we can't predict.



*Are you sure that we can't know much about likelihood? It seems like we can know SOME useful things. Maybe.



>I know that you believe that walking out can solve many problems. Let's assume your 5-10 mile walkout is easy for you with your nav skills and your LED light. Unfortunately, you stab out an eye with a small branch your light didn't see



To me this partly goes with the "Stay Put" vs. "Walk Out" dilemma. There might also be knowledge about how walking out in day compares to night. I suppose it, again, depends on location/terrain. Some places ya can, some ya can't.



To me these things all seem to be on continuums that require judgement calls. They range from annoyance to survival. One can turn into the other quickly. How to tell---that's the trick. I find that for me, practicing at the top of the "food chain" for most likely scenarios in the annoyance range does the most to prevent both the annoyances and the worst things.



Your knife/striker points are good, for sure.



--JP
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#36
Jeff:



THANK YOU!



For one of the most thought provoking "survival" posts I have read in years. I completely agree that credentials are not required to question conventional wisdom. The tone of your response is outstanding.



What a welcome breath of fresh air.
Regards,

Al



Age and treachery will overcome youth and enthusiasm.
#37
4 out of 5 dentists agree. And I go to the 5th dentist!





Take nothing for granted. Don't play the odds. When I was in the Model Mugging rape defense program, we used to talk about the best chance for being raped was from someone you knew. This may be true, but is meaningless if your encounter was with a stranger!





Take the wilderness component out of your question and you will find life is a constant challenge of survival realities. You may survive being lost in the woods, but what good is it, if you kill yoursef the next week, when your wife divorces you, etc?





Train your skills, get your equipment together, and train your spirit by getting into a survival mindset, and your chance of surviving anything will improve greatly!
Message of Insight and Unity 

We go into the wilderness to fulfill our hearts and empty our minds of life's garbage.
The gear we leave behind and the challenges we encounter, 
Are methods we use to cleanse our spirits.
Of Survivalists and Bushcrafters, Primitive Technologists too, we are one.........

It is the wilderness within, we strive for first and always.
Not everyone can have a cabin in the mountains.
The thread that connects us, is fine like silk and strong as steel.
Together, the song of the wilderness is the song we sing!

"And can I say something else?"
Bushcrafting is "doing what you want to do." 
Survival is "doing what you have to do"
Primitive Technology is about all of the above........

By TNRR aka "Survival Sully"
#38
Thanks, Al.





Say, maybe a big part of what I'm trying to figure out here with this "likelihood" stuff is maybe that we should each of us figure out our own PERSONAL likelihood realities.



I spend a good bit of time working on the whole range of outdoor skills---as a result my practice gets spread pretty thin.



...So here's the punchline: I have found, over time and many experiences, that for ME, the map/compass thing is the most important. It's my own main weak link. I've had close calls with it, and annoyances. For me I have found that if I *heap time and practice and reminders and double reminders* on this particularity that I avoid nearly all my glitches in the first place. My own particular response to trouble in this regard has been walkouts or almost-have-to-walkouts. I have sensed the need for intense walkouts loom on my horizon a few times. But I've never had the "maybe a shelter and fire" vibe start creeping up on me. Maybe I should've! I don't know. I just have to go on my skills, hunch, info. (That's why I was trying to explore the "Stay Put" vs Walkout" continuum. When to pull the plug and stay vs. when to move and plan on moving as long as it takes.) As it was, the times that I have ended up walking out are times that could've easily freaked out the unprepared. So I was glad for my walkout/barebones-land-nav skills. At the same time I saw that my troubles could've been avoided by having map/compass in the first place and/or better skills with same. So, given how I screw up, I've started putting more emphasis on these areas. This seems for ME like nipping trouble in the bud and making what trouble does TEND to happen to ME into something that I'm better ready for.



I'll try not to neglect the other stuff, though.
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#39
Jeff



I have to agree that your manner is refreshing; this could easily have become escalated. We all preach that we have to personalize our kits. yours seems inadequate to us as a group, but seems to satisfy you.



We have all had our discussions on Bear Grylls and Les Stroud. I think the key difference is where Les settles in, takes inventory and establishes his needs before he moves out, Bear immediately starts to run to where he thinks is the right location. At first it sounds as if you advocate the Bear methodology and that doesn't resonate here.



Regardless, you forced every to defend their position and you accepted some ideas; so all in all, a good conversation.
If you can't hear me, it's because I'm in parentheses.

Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time.

How young can you die of old age?

I went to a restaurant that serves "breakfast at any time". So I ordered French Toast during the Renaissance.

I have an existential map. It has 'You are here' written all over it.

There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot.

-Steven Wright
#40
Not trying to beat a dead horse here but this has been a very interesting post.

Also, Jeff, if I use the word "you" in my explanation it is not meant as directed toward JeffOYB, it is meant more toward our hypothetical victim.



As I read this thread I noticed a shift from "walking out while camping" to "walking out if my vehicle is stuck" kind of weaving in and out, very subtly, through the replies.



Jeff, you'd mentioned something about never seeing examples of FOOD or SHELTER coming into play during a survival scenario. The Kim family SHELTERED in their vehicle and, IIRC, Mrs. Kim said one of the reasons her husband tried to walk out was because they were out of FOOD. If they had more FOOD, or even more SKILLS, perhaps he would have stayed in that location. As it was, he had one of the most important things right there: SHELTER.



Here is my take on "walking out."



If you are out camping, hiking, snowmobiling, whatever, and got lost then your land nav skills failed you somewhere. I am not saying your skills aren't good because I think you can have great land nav skills and still get lost. Because I've done it before. If you are at the point that you are lost then, frequently, running around isn't going to get you found. I think walking out at night is an even worse idea, especially given a scenario where you got yourself lost when the sun was up but now you are going to attempt to self recover by the light of the moon and a flashlight.



If you are driving a long distance, say Michigan to California to visit a friend, work, whatever, are you going to take Topo maps for the ENTIRE route?? I never have. I take that big bastard that comes in book form from my insurance agent or Wal-Mart or, occasionally, I'll grab those individual state ones at the Quick Marts along the way. Those maps would help if you were around manmade landmarks but then when you are off in the middle of nowhere, those maps generally have a big blank spot to reflect the lack of manmade items that you currently don't see around you. (Hmm, double-negative?) You know what I mean.



Many, many people get lost as a family and often times with children along. Have you ever tried to encourage a grade schooler along on a 10 mile hike?

I sure haven't and I don't ever want to try.



Can you carry them and gear for the two of you for ten miles?

Again, maybe there are some who could.

I can't.



What if there were multiple children involved...

and they were scared...

and they were cold...

and they were hungry?





Ropes, come-along, chains and the skills to use them?

I think those are all excellent ideas! <img src='http://www.hoodswoods.net/IVB/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/thumbsup.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':thumbsup:' />



Last December a ginormous blizzard hit Colorado and there were numerous motorists and truckers stranded on the Interstate. There weren't enough rescuers to rescue everybody in one day. What the rescuers did was to pluck the unprepared out of harms way and to leave the prepared behind for the night to be rescued the following day. I saw many people on the news talking about how it was no big deal and they just spent the night in their car/sleeper. (Because they were prepared)



I think CoyoteSpirit touched on this but lighters can run out of fuel, matches can get wet but spark-based fire tools are good for thousands of fires. Even better, if you know friction fires and the types of wood to use (I don't yet) then you have even more possible resources. Even Les Stroud demonstrated a spark-based fire with a battery and gasoline! (There is one I never practice!) It was the fire starting SKILLS that he keeps in his melon that helped him to demonstrate that technique. Everyone here is just saying that OWNING SKILLS is better than nothing at all.



Just some thoughts that entered my mind while reading this post. I hope I haven't offended you, Jeff, because that isn't my intent. Just discussion and commentary.



Thanks for starting this thread, and thanks for keeping your cool and offering explanations where many others would have lashed out and flamed! <img src='http://www.hoodswoods.net/IVB/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/thumbsup.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':thumbsup:' />
"Beware the fury of a patient man." - John Dryden



كافر
#41
[quote name='Fox1' post='206862' date='Feb 7 2008, 07:06 PM'][ ] If you are out camping, hiking, snowmobiling, whatever, and got lost then your land nav skills failed you somewhere. I am not saying your skills aren't good because I think you can have great land nav skills and still get lost. Because I've done it before. If you are at the point that you are lost then, frequently, running around isn't going to get you found. [ ][/quote]



My situation in Michigan is that I might way end up lost in a 5-10-mile chunk where I would know in general that a certain highway is somewhere to the north no more than, say, 4 hours of hiking and that there's no terrain too intense in between me and that highway besides deliberate (careful) endurance of a hike and a bother doing it on no food and water, say. So I'm lost in the immediate scope of things but I know where various well-traveled roads are in the county bracketing around me. So, what if I don't panic, don't try to find the 2-track that has disappeared and go in circles in a half-mile area where I know it has to be, but instead if I *do* have a compass or some sure way to go north then I just put in the hours and get good'n'tired finding some people. If it's night then spend the whole night headed north.



...Or should I hunker down, make fires, shelter, put out signals, wait for the wife to wonder then finally freak out and call the police the next day then the rescuers find me halfway thru the next.



I suppose it's all a judgement call.



You're right that the scenario becomes very different when...it's different. The less you know and the further away friendlies might be and, and, the better it is to hunker.



It's funny that I seemed to have walked into the Bear vs. Les thing.



I appreciate the Bear dismay. He seems like a nut! I don't suggest walking out half-cocked or doing some hyper scamper like he does. It just seems that it's likely that lots of folks who get into trouble do so actually quite near people in terrain that isn't that wretched (me anyway). So where to put the skills effort? And how to avoid trouble in fairly populous areas in the first place? ...Sorry for pushing so many buttons the wrong way, especially at first. I meant to provoke but not in a bad way. : )
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#42
Real survival , ok,1993 in November in the 3 sisters mountains south of Salmon Id.

My brother and I horseback looking Elk. He takes a nice bull, while we gut it a Mountain

Lion spooks us and scares our horses off.I shot it and found it had a broken front leg.

We are dressed properly, 2 good knives,1 bic lighter and some trail jerky.

Know what ??we slept in a SHELTER of pine boughs 2 nights,melted snow for WATER ,ATE FRESH ELK MEAT and walked out 2 days later.

Not much of a survival story but in different situations could have been deadly.

Who was waiting for us at the line cabin when we got there??

those lovable horses.No matter how well they are broke I NEVER ground hitch a horse on trail anymore!!!

Mule
#43
[quote name='Fox1' post='206862' date='Feb 7 2008, 10:06 PM']...

If you are out camping, hiking, snowmobiling, whatever, and got lost then your land nav skills failed you somewhere. I am not saying your skills aren't good because I think you can have great land nav skills and still get lost. Because I've done it before. ...[/quote]



Makes me mindful of the story that Daniel Boone was once asked if he had ever gotten lost, and he answered "No, I've never been lost but I got mighty confused once for three days."



Mariner



PS. In Louis L'Amour's Education of a Common Man, he describes how his car broke down in the desert and he had to walk out.
#44
Here's mine: Didn't start hunting until on my own in college and wound up knowing a certain part of the local woods like the back of my hand, but still new at it. Friend wants to go squirrel hunting and I want to try out the other side of the highway. Well it gets dark a little sooner than expected and we lose the trail back to the road. This was in northern Louisiana and even though we were within 200 yds of the major hwy in the area there were brier bushes we couldn't get thru. Did a stream crossing over a log - and fell in (about 5ft deep), shotgun in hand. At this point I'm ready to hunker down, but my friend is starting to freak big time. It was a shame to see this guy that was a baseball stud in high school whining about he just wants to call his girlfriend back home. To chill him out we start being real careful about going in the same direction and being able to get back to where we were (should've been doing that all along, but young, dumb, ...). We finally find a house in the middle of nowhere that looks like a tornado went thru it and again I'm ready to hang tight for the night. We walk up a dirt road a little bit and a guy winds up giving us a ride to my truck and cautions us that he's lived there 30+ years and still never goes into those woods w/o compass. I went back later to the same area and the ground we were stomping thru had these tree roots that stuck straight up from the ground like spikes. One trip/stumble and one of us could have been easily killed - glad he never went back to that part of the woods again. Anyway, even if your land nav skills are great, if you're not on a road/trail (or even if you are) you can be in great deal of potential trouble and not know it.
Steve
  • Ignorance is a long way from stupid, but it can get there real fast.
  • Losing an illusion makes you smarter than finding a truth - Ludwig Borne
  • Always remember the Golden Rule: He who has the gold, makes the rules.
  • This is more fun than beating a tree hugger with a dead baby seal.
#45
It seems that everyone is assuming that the person can walk out of whatever the situation is.

and that this person is prepared in , at least, a small manner...



We cannot assume that all these people are going to have any kind of knowledge.

We cannot assume that people can walk/hike 5 miles. Most cannot.

Those that are riding a snowmobile, riding in a truck or whatever, that breaks down in the middle of "squat and dot" may not be able to walk 10 miles

Just because someone is "out" does not make them in good shape.



When was the last time any one here hiked 10 miles? Five miles? Be honest with yourself.Its only your own life.



All of these other people we are talking about is the reason ,as he said , BrianP has a job. They are not prepared for jackshit.We know that ,thats why most of us are into this Forum in the first place.



As Coyote Spirit said, planning for a likely situation is mostly impossible. Unless you have hired some "porters" to carry al kinds of gear.Or you can foretell the future.



MOVING ON



From a long line of folks, who have studied for years, what is needed,we have established guide lines, for minimal gear to get through at least 72 hours.



These methods are tried and true.

All that is left is for the individual to "custom" fit into his gear what is needed for his AO.Period.



It seems to me that when you question "methods" and "practices" in the survival arts, that most of the answers are pretty easy to come by.It is not hard.

Maybe if your understanding, or lack thereof, of these skills was broadend in scope , grasping the concepts wouldnt be such a chore.



Many videos,by HoodWoods...will help you out.

Dozens of books will give you a healthy dose of the whys and the reasons certain skills are recommended.

Many schools offer very good courses. Experience out of your AO would be a plus.



On a personal level I dont see the questions you pose as a challenge to anyone who really owns the skills and has a true understanding of the survial arts.

It smacks of " round robin b.s." of survival masterbation , sucking everyone into what is viewed as being intellectual about "being there" ,"likelyhoods", "being prepared",Hiking" "not hiking" etc... All couched in some elusive definition that is escaping you ....



It is pretty simple and to make it complicated isnt required... Your milage may vary



Dude...coveryerownsix<<<
I have been where the hand of man has never set foot



Dont pick a fight with an old man. If he's too old to fight, he'll just kill you.


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