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Survival Vs. "annoyance" Likelihood Triage...
#46
"In lower Michigan where I live a road with traffic is likely no more than 5 miles away and even our bad terrain is fairly passable---altho a cedar swamp is something to take seriously and be particularly prepared for. So I put an "annoying and possibly hard walk out" as very high on my Likelihood Triage list. Or should I emphasize Stay Put instead?"



I live about 25 miles from you. I am not worried about a survival experience in MY back yard, but I do not stay locked in my house. I love to get OUT and AWAY. That is when survival skills may be important.
#47
[quote name='Dirttime Dude' post='206926' date='Feb 8 2008, 03:21 AM']When was the last time any one here hiked 10 miles? Five miles? Be honest with yourself.Its only your own life.[/quote]



10 miles, last fall, five miles 2-3 weeks ago (snowshoeing, not hiking but close enough).



I consider myself to be in pretty decent shape. 10 mile hikes don't phase me, but regardless, I'm _not_ going to try to walk my dumb ass out of BFE.



Living in Northern Lower Michigan, I wouldn't have to walk too far to find a road, or house, etc. Still, not worth trying and failing. You get _one_ chance at life.



In the desert, where you'd think a person on foot would be easy to spot, you simply can't be seen easily. A vehicle on the side of the road is a LOT easier to see than a wandering person far from beaten paths who though they saw a gas station around the last corner and figures if they just walk a "straight line" back this way they'll get to it quicker.



Here in the rolling hills and woods of my area, it's REALLY easy to lose your bearings. Between the trees, and the hills, cell coverage off a well beaten path can be spotty at best. GPS? PFT! good luck getting through the canopy.



Walking out is the _last_ choice, not the first.
Welcome to the internet, you're probably taking it too seriously.

What you see is the result of the perspective you choose.

"Knowledge isn't wisdom unless it's empirical." - My own damn self.

Grand Rapids Michigan
#48
[quote name='Dirttime Dude' post='206926' date='Feb 8 2008, 12:21 AM']It seems that everyone is assuming that the person can walk out of whatever the situation is.

and that this person is prepared in , at least, a small manner...



We cannot assume that all these people are going to have any kind of knowledge.

We cannot assume that people can walk/hike 5 miles. Most cannot.

Those that are riding a snowmobile, riding in a truck or whatever, that breaks down in the middle of "squat and dot" may not be able to walk 10 miles

Just because someone is "out" does not make them in good shape.



When was the last time any one here hiked 10 miles? Five miles? Be honest with yourself.Its only your own life.



[SNIP]



On a personal level I dont see the questions you pose as a challenge to anyone who really owns the skills and has a true understanding of the survial arts.

It smacks of " round robin b.s." of survival masterbation , sucking everyone into what is viewed as being intellectual about "being there" ,"likelyhoods", "being prepared",Hiking" "not hiking" etc... All couched in some elusive definition that is escaping you ....



It is pretty simple and to make it complicated isnt required... Your milage may vary



Dude...coveryerownsix<<<[/quote]



Dude has some very good points here, I side with his wisdom and listen when he talks about this stuff. I quote it above because I think it's worth repeating.



I submit that there is as much danger in assuming that there is only one solution to a problem and getting caught applying the wrong kind of thinking to not having a plan at all. The reason why survival skills work and one of the benefits to having them presented to you in a system like in Ron and Karen's videos is that you begin to see additional applications and synergies between the skills. That can be as important motoring about in your veritable "back-yard" as it can be across the globe in a far off place. Shit happens, it happens fast, and you better either step out of the way or know how to deal. And if your first solution doesn't work, you better have a backup plan or be able to adapt.



As Dude so adeptly alluded to in his post, everyone has differing capabilities, so we all have to prepare differently. ADDITIONALLY, to make things even more complicated, you might not be alone, you might be with someone of entirely different survival priorities than you. If you don't have the general skills to help them out (which you may have not even begun to address in your personal "likelihoods" list), then you both are in a world of hurt if you're in a situation together. A good example is learning how to administer an epi-pen to someone that is allergic to bee stings.



Two weeks ago, I walked 17 miles across the desert in 12 hours. 12 of these were across pretty punishing terrain, 5 of these were in the dark, in the pouring rain, at about 38 degrees. When it started to get dark and the clouds rolled in, I left on the return leg with no fewer than 5 complete plans for making sure I survived the night. I've had too many "good ideas" turn out to be FUBAR to trust any less.
"Act like a man of thought - Think like a man of action." - Thomas Mann
#49
I've got to admit...I don't quite understand the "walk out" idea.... If you have the ability to 'walk out' then you're not really in any danger...are you? Nor are you lost, obviously. You're just late.



What am I missing?
#50
Am I likely to die soon,,,No but I have life insurance

Is my house likely to be destroyed ...No but I have house insurance

Am I going to be in an accident with my truck...no but I have car insurance.



Am I going to get lost in the woods...no but I have wilderness skills



in each case you can end the sentence with Just in case.



I hunt remote areas of British Columbia where the nearest highway is not miles away they are hundreds of miles away.

Can I walk out? maybe with a lot of luck.

Is help nearby? Not at all cel phone service ended a few miles after leaving the highway

Will somebody miss me and send help? Of course they will

My job is to stay where I am likely be searched for and use every skill in my possession to remain alive until they get there.



Or



Use every skill in my possession to ensure they do not have to look for me in the first place.



Have I walked out at night with a light and a compass bearing?...yes, but only when I was sure of where I was and where I was going

Have I stayed the night rather than walk out?..yes when I assessed the risk too great to walk out

Was I comfortable? ...not as comfortable as in a wall tent with anice hot stove.

But I was warm, dry and had a reasonable night's rest



In the northern half of British Columbia seasoned woodsmen, trappers, loggers, hunters and boatmen disappear without trace. One miscalculation can put you in a dire situation. The skills they possessed did not come up to the situation. So when you think about it it is really hard to be prepared for everything isn't it?







If you are as Bush wise as you profess JeffOYB you may realize that the more skills you own the less equipment you need. The less equipment you carry the easier it is to travel. If a person has no skills where I travel their equipment may be very burdensome up to and including a Search and Rescue Squadron.



I am not a survival expert by any means but I try to own the skills that will ensure I am at a basic level of comfort in the environment i am in..whichever environment I am in.



There is a tendancy in us to think that all the people we deal with think the same as we and live the same as we process information the same as we. It is called the Intellectual Trap.



You are a free agent and can judge for yourself whether the information and comaradarie we share here is of value to you. Please do not take this as an attack ...but if it isn't to your liking feel free to search elsewhere. If you can find value here and care to share your experience we will listen and perhaps learn from you.



Griz
Hopefully the S won't HTF and I pray every day that it won't. It would not be fun.



I have a high art..I wound with cruelty, all who wound me...Archillocus; 650 B.C.
#51
JeffOYB, You miss the whole point.



You ask questions and assume answers. Much of what you have stated just shows your lack of real world experience. You are being naive. I liked the fundamental comparison of survival to annoying, but you took a wrong turn. You are wandering around in "actuarial tables" and guesses. Its a good set up for a personal disaster. Start back at the beginning.



Pay attention to BASICS!



There is a reason why they're suggested in the first place! We have a lot of competent outdoorsmen here and several who have "saved themselves" in real survival situations. You have ignored many responses from them outright.



I suspect your motives.



Muddyboots
Shared pain is lessened, shared joy is increased!

Thus do we refute entropy. -S. Robinson



Communication is a Survival Skill! So is critical thinking!





When any government, or any church for that matter, undertakes to say to its subjects, "This you may not read, this you must not see, this you are forbidden to know," the end result is tyranny and oppression, no matter how holy the motives. Mighty little force is needed to control a man whose mind has been hoodwinked; contrariwise, no amount of force can control a free man, a man whose mind is free. No, not the rack, not fission bombs, not anything—you can't conquer a free man; the most you can do is kill him.



#52
Thank you brother Boots



Griz
Hopefully the S won't HTF and I pray every day that it won't. It would not be fun.



I have a high art..I wound with cruelty, all who wound me...Archillocus; 650 B.C.
#53
[quote name='Muddyboots' post='207149' date='Feb 8 2008, 06:31 PM']JeffOYB, You miss the whole point.



You ask questions and assume answers. Much of what you have stated just shows your lack of real world experience. You are being naive. I liked the fundamental comparison of survival to annoying, but you took a wrong turn. You are wandering around in "actuarial tables" and guesses. Its a good set up for a personal disaster. Start back at the beginning.



Pay attention to BASICS!



There is a reason why they're suggested in the first place! We have a lot of competent outdoorsmen here and several who have "saved themselves" in real survival situations. You have ignored many responses from them outright.



I suspect your motives.



Muddyboots[/quote]



It sounds like you dislike the idea of likelihoods and don't consider them relevant. Fine. But you admit the idea of annoying events which aren't survival events. I suggest there's a relation between minor events, practical skills and likelihood...and who knows what all more. I haven't claimed to know. I don't dispute the basics. But you dislike the idea of even discussing this stuff enough to bring in suspicions. Psychology is important in outdoor practice and it might relate to likelihoods as well, but suspicions are unnecessary---discussion hopefully isn't a threat to anyone.
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]
#54
I really haven't tracked this thread but I can tell a pedant when I see one. In case you are unaware of the meaning of the term, Wikipedia can assist you. "The term is typically used with a negative connotation, indicating someone overly concerned with minutiae and detail and whose tone is perceived as condescending."



[url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedant"]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedant[/url]



That is exactly how you have been coming off. In this forum we have had extensive experience with people who defend to the death the practice of picking fly specks out of horse shit. That is merely annoying. When you question the motives of one of my moderators you are walking the ragged edge. If you want to talk about technique, great. Your original post was suggestive of your preconceptions and included the logical errors of the inexperienced. I think that several folks here have attempted to assist you with a reinterpretation of the "facts" and conceptions you presented but your response has been argumentative rather than questioning. It is OK to question but to suggest that there is something suspicious is in fact an attempt to create dissonance and that my friend is trouble.



You are welcome to come and learn and share at this table. If you spill your drink, no problem but if you question the quality of the food or attack the hosts you are welcome to hit the road. If you continue to attempt to create discord you will be assisted to the door and you can wander back to the little ego project at your website.



Do you understand me?



Ron
Hind sight is an exact science until historians or politicians get involved.



Nothing is so simple that it can't be misunderstood.



I have regular bowel movements, I just wish they were voluntary...



My dad started walking five miles a day when he was 60. Now he's 91, and we don't know where he is.



Understand?
#55
Quote:pedant...



A most apt description Dr. Hood! Perhaps Mr. Jeffoyb will be hoisted on his own petard.



Toodles,

Patrick
#56
<img src='http://www.hoodswoods.net/IVB/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':lol:' />



I kills me when you change links, Ron!



<img src='http://www.hoodswoods.net/IVB/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':lol:' />
"Beware the fury of a patient man." - John Dryden



كافر
#57
Is it just me or is JeffOYB talking about "emergencies" while everyone else is talking about "survival?"



The two are very different words with very different meanings and very different appropriate preparations and actions.



Sorry to come in so late on this.
#58
Quote:It sounds like you dislike the idea of likelihoods and don't consider them relevant. Fine. But you admit the idea of annoying events, which aren't survival events. I suggest there's a relation between minor events, practical skills and likelihood...and who knows what all more. I haven't claimed to know. I don't dispute the basics. But you dislike the idea of even discussing this stuff enough to bring in suspicions. Psychology is important in outdoor practice and it might relate to likelihoods as well, but suspicions are unnecessary---discussion hopefully isn't a threat to anyone.
Actually, I have discussed this at length with the Hoodlums on the board and in person, as well as the classes I've taught. I have experienced the entire rainbow of "annoyance" through "survival". If you read through this boards past posts, you would see that "what is survival?" is commonly discussed. I didn't "admit" anything, I applauded the thought! I've spent a whole passel of time looking for people who were not in trouble at all but "feking of to the pub" and not telling their wives. There are a lot of situations that I've been in that many experienced people here would label a "survival situation" yet I thought it was a good opportunity to finish a good book. I have all my fingers and toes (though I may be shy a few marbles!) and I like to share my experience. You said:



Quote:Psychology is important in outdoor practice and it might relate to likelihoods as well, but suspicions are unnecessary---discussion hopefully isn't a threat to anyone.



Oh? Suspicions are unnecessary? Well, part of what I do here is examine posts and posters and make judgments on what kind of impact they are having on this community. SO, based on my observations, I truly hope that you are just coming off wrong in print! There are plenty of solid Hoodlums who had a rough start here and there are Hoodlums that come across poorly in print about half the time, yet are the most amazing, kind, generous people in the world in person. If you want to play word games and massage your ego, I'll bury you. I can call upon experts beyond my own expertise (which you truly don't know) and I can call them on the phone, getting them out of bed.



Or I could just make you disappear.





I'm not petty. Really I'm rather generous! I feel bad that I can't always give every Hoodlum the time and thought they deserve.



If you actually want to discuss something, present a cogent argument and I'll gladly participate, as will the whole community.



Thank you for your time.



Muddyboots
Shared pain is lessened, shared joy is increased!

Thus do we refute entropy. -S. Robinson



Communication is a Survival Skill! So is critical thinking!





When any government, or any church for that matter, undertakes to say to its subjects, "This you may not read, this you must not see, this you are forbidden to know," the end result is tyranny and oppression, no matter how holy the motives. Mighty little force is needed to control a man whose mind has been hoodwinked; contrariwise, no amount of force can control a free man, a man whose mind is free. No, not the rack, not fission bombs, not anything—you can't conquer a free man; the most you can do is kill him.



#59
So Jeff...



When you didnt reply to my second post at the end of page three, but went forth with your diatribe in a one on one discussion with yourself , is where you really failed with every poster that followed.While ignoring all that been addressed before.



In less than 20 posts on this forum, you managed to get the attention of each and every moderator, and every member who posted in answer to your so called questions, you managed to work yourself into some of the best nonsense I have seen in a longtime...



Ron and Muddyboots have really already said it in their posts...It was said much earlier but you didnt read between the lines.Not that it wasnt simple enough to understand.

Most people have, at least, half the sense that God gave a goat, some missed the line up...So when the "Js" were called where did you go? No need to answer.



Dude....coveryerowndamnsix<<<
I have been where the hand of man has never set foot



Dont pick a fight with an old man. If he's too old to fight, he'll just kill you.
#60
[quote name='Ron Hood' post='207182' date='Feb 8 2008, 08:04 PM']I really haven't tracked this thread but I can tell a pedant when I see one. [...] When you question the motives of one of my moderators you are walking the ragged edge.[/quote]



???



I'm the one being lectured to all the time here.



And it's MY motives that are questioned.



***



I note that I *did* make a quick change to include a greater concern about exposure than I had in my first list---based on helpful posts, and proving that I'm no cornball pedant.



I also accept that Annoyances (meaning Events Outdoors---not my posts!) can quickly turn into SAR. I do work on skills that include the whole range and I respect the basics (some seem to overlook that).



It seems like the Likelihood Triage Concept has been dismissed here. Fine. I've never said I was an expert or that it was a great idea. I would think that lack of expertise is included in the Likelihood idea---not many folks are experts nor do they have much time---so maybe they should focus on their weakpoints and lean on their strong ones. My weakpoint is remembering maps. My strength is hiking. My situation is mid-Michigan.



Most folks here seem to say Stay Put. But for me, I'm willing to CONSIDER the idea that where I wander (and drive) in mid-Michigan that I'll be likely to run into Annoyances of a half-day to full-day in length, max. So it simply seems that the Water and Food sides of the 3 R's deserve LESS of my practice time. I'm far more likely as a situation gets out of hand to need Warmth---so I might need shelter/fire. At the same time, with the Warmth "3" being "3 hours," given how I dress and what the weather where I go is like most of the time, I'd say that 6-8 hours is a more likely exposure parameter, but of course every event is likely different.



The upshot of it all is that my plan right now is to work most on remembering map/compass/light and on land-nav skills in general as a way to avoid and moderate the Annoyances that I am likely to run into. And my first backup skillset is shelter/fire. ...Subject to change.
***

Jeff Potter

publisher, http://OutYourBackDoor.com

for indie outdoor adventure & culture

[someone had hacked my sig -- it's fixed now...]


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